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The global equity market is rallying and catching most economists, analysts, hedge fund managers and strategists by surprise.
The S&P 500 Index is already trading where consensus expectations expected the index to trade at year-end. What’s more, most non-U.S. equity markets have rallied even more sharply from their lows of only a few months ago. What does it mean for you?
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If you’re a long-term equity investor, assuming your overall assets are allocated in alignment with your risk tolerance and investment goals, there really isn’t much to do. On the one hand, this recent bullish move could be the start of something big. U.S. economic data is improving, consumer and CEO confidence is rising, and fears of a European-led meltdown have dissipated, at least for now. Feels like equity markets could move higher.
On the other hand, strong equity market rallies frequently occur in the midst of a prolonged bear market environment, such as we have experienced since 2000. Recall that the U.S. equity market rose a similar percentage in the first two months of last year, only to falter as the year progressed. Moreover, whereas the ECB has engineered a crafty Long Term Refinancing Operation (“LTRO”) to meet the near-term liquidity needs of European banks, we will continue to witness deleveraging from both U.S. and European financial institutions which will reduce future economic and corporate profit growth rates.
In fact, the rate at which the economy can grow will be hampered by a reduced willingness of banks to lend, a reduced amount of spending by federal, state and local governments, reduced consumption from many still-financially-overstretched American citizens who also face elevated gas prices, and from a reduced willingness of businesses to invest in the face of uncertainty regarding future tax and regulatory policies. These secular trends could halt the current equity rally at a moment’s notice.
Accordingly, with the S&P 500 Index trading at just roughly 13.5x forward earnings estimates versus the 15.5x average forward earnings multiple over the past 40 years, prices are low enough to remain attractive while not being the screaming buy that they apparently were only three months ago.
For traders, those who have a shorter investment time horizon and a higher degree of risk tolerance, the prescription for current market conditions is a bit different. An old trader’s saw states: “Overbought markets stay overbought.”. Per this adage, a trader might rightfully conclude that staying long is the winning hand barring an exogenous shock to the system. That is, with so much money on the sidelines from institutional investors and hedge fund managers who misdiagnosed and missed this recent equity rally, “dips are to be bought.” Lots of institutional cash is waiting to buy equities on any near-term correction in stock prices.
As such, the real test of the strength and longevity of this recent rally will not come from the first short-term correction of a few percentage points, for buyers will show up on these first forays down. Rather, when prices rebound from their first downtrend, watch to see if the near-term price peaks can be broken to the upside, thereby breaking near-term resistance levels and establishing the durability of this rally. Conversely, if prices struggle to break this newly-established level of resistance and if technical divergences appear (e.g. fewer stocks are trading at 52-week high prices, trading volumes are declining, etc.), then you’ll have your signal to exit your trading positions.
One important observation: it is striking how far equity market volatility has fallen in three short months. Said differently, it’s amazing how cheap buying equity insurance has become relative to what it cost only three months ago. Traders who wish to maintain their long exposure might consider buying out-of-the money put options and/or entering stop loss orders on their positions. Alternatively, going long VXX, an exchange-traded note tied to the price of futures on the S&P 500 Index (which is making a bet that volatility will increase from today’s muted level) may be an efficient way to hedge your risk while fully maintaining your positions’ upside potential.
And why does it matter? Because it can help you get a better idea of whether or not your practice and your resources match your target audience and your business plan. If there are mismatches, there is no time like the present to make some adjustments.
Cerulli Associates and IMCA produced a joint research study entitled “Understanding Wealth Mangers: Practice-Type Analysis,” which categorized advisors/wealth manager practice types according to how much advice they offered not directly related to investment management. In general, the more services you provide above and beyond traditional investment management, the more sophisticated and wealthy the clients that you are serving.
The study’s categories of advisors – from least comprehensive in services offered to most were:
–Money Managers – desire to be valued solely on their investment performance.
–Investment Planners – work with investors with larger financial needs on an as-needed basis – typically use modular planning tools.
–Financial Planners – strive to deliver comprehensive financial advice, but still many clients do not receive comprehensive financial plans.
–Wealth Managers – additional services included to meet the wider needs of high net worth individuals, including philanthropic giving and concierge-type services.
While the categories may not be perfect, which describes your business the best? Now – here are some results from the study and the surveys that they conducted – so that you can see if your practice is in sync:
–The percentage of fee-based business is higher as you move up the scale from money manager to wealth manger, as wealthier clients are more likely to understand the fee-based arrangement and are comfortable paying this way.
–Wealth managers tend to work in team practices and provide either in- or out-house resources for the specialized and more sophisticated services that they provide (e.g., advanced planning and wealth preservation).
–Wealth managers utilizing a holistic approach are more likely to be the Alpha advisor (the clients’ primary advisor who has the capability to provide performance on all assets, even those held away).
–Wealth managers are more likely to have larger books of business – fewer clients with larger amounts of assets.
An last, but certainly not least, wealth managers are more likely to get referrals – from either clients or other professionals. On average, according to this study, 55% of new business of wealth managers comes from referrals.
While these statistics sure seem like compelling reasons for many advisors to strive to become wealth managers, it’s important that you make sure that you have the capabilities, finances and resources to do so.
If not, create your own compelling reason for choosing the type of business that best suites your capabilities. There is enough room in the business for advisors to be successful in a number of way – but it’s always good to know what the competition is doing. And to know that you are serving the proper clientele.
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When people analyze advisors, they usually focus on traits that successful advisors share. But are there traits that are shared by underperforming advisors as well? The answer is yes. If you’re mismanaging your practice, the odds are that you’re deficient in at least one of four closely linked areas. Taking corrective action in your weak area(s) can help position you and your business for future success.
Here are the top traits that I see among underachieving advisors:
Lack of a business plan: Whether you’re a single practitioner or part of a team, planning is a crucial component to your business success. The key is to match your resources with your growth expectations. The metrics used are typically desired assets under management and revenue. Where do you want your business to be in one year, or in three years? When combined with your desired minimum account size, you can determine the number of clients that your business should have. Armed with the information, you can analyze if your resources – both human and financial – are a match for your goals. Once resources and goals are in sync, you can begin to address the question of how you get there. Make sure that everyone in your organization understands the goals and how success will be measured.
Lack of a distinct value proposition: Why is someone going to do business with you? What value do you add that they can not get somewhere else? What is unique about you or your services? These are the types of questions successful advisors ask themselves. You notice that I didn’t mention the word “product.” That’s because the product is the commodity; the advisor is the differentiating point. Creating a unique value proposition is part of the process of developing your brand identity. A good brand is one in which every time a client sees something from you, they know it’s from you, and they are reminded of the unique value that you add.
Poor client service: Multiple surveys find that client service – even more than investment performance – will dictate whether clients stay with you or not. Part of the planning process for all successful advisors is devising a client service strategy that accomplishes two primary goals: provide the client a unique, enjoyable and profitable experience, and offer the service in an efficient manner. Good client service begins by asking clients what they want and how they want their services delivered (for example, in-person, telephone and/or e-mail). Challenge your staff to create your own unique client experience and make it part of your brand.
Being reactive instead of proactive: Finally, it’s the old saying that if the client has to ask, it’s too late. Successful advisors anticipate client questions and concerns, especially during volatile times. Call clients before they call you and make them feel like true partners in the relationship. Conduct client surveys as a good way to get feedback. Embrace social media to the extent allowed by your firm so that you can push out ideas to your clients on an on-going basis.
It’s almost February and many of us have already let our new year resolutions fall by the wayside. Luckily, there’s still time to get your investing smarts on track for 2012.
Here are some themes to keep in mind to help you become a better investor this year:
- Be News Agnostic — Avoid being swayed by the news of the day, whether it’s good or bad. Focus on trends versus headlines. Expose yourself to thoughtful interpretation of what’s going on by following analysts, journalists and bloggers you trust.
- Cash is Not Necessarily King — You may sleep better at night if you are invested in cash and thus avoiding the ups and downs of the market. However, cash has a price since it isn’t returning enough to cover even our current low inflation rate—so you are actually losing money when you are overly invested in cash.
- Prudence is Queen — A diversified portfolio, modified for current economic, political and global circumstances, is the best approach. Make sure you are not over-invested in your company’s stock and that you have a good mix of various types of investments, including cash.
- Time for Generosity — If your assets exceed million as an individual or million as a couple, you can reduce estate taxes in the future by making some strategic gifts to heirs now. The million per person estate/gift tax exemption is going away by the end of 2012.
- Give Plans Another Go-Around — Many experts are projecting lower returns on investments in the coming years. So this is a good time to get a financial plan—or refresh your last one—and assess whether you are still on track to meet your retirement goals.
